A recent study has predicted a global rise in life expectancy with men gaining nearly five years and women over four by 2050 despite geopolitical woes, metabolic issues and environmental threats,
This longevity leap is most significant in countries with lower life expectancies, narrowing the gap between nations. The report published in The Lancet and titled, ‘Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021’ revealed that public health advancements in tackling heart disease, COVID-19, and other illnesses are drivers of the trend.
The researchers indicate that global life expectancy will increase by 4.9 years in males and 4.2 years in females between 2022 and 2050, forecasting global life expectancy for males to be above 75 years and for females, above 80 years.
However, the quality of those extra years remains unclear. The shift from battling infectious diseases to chronic illnesses like heart disease and diabetes, according to the study, suggests a possibility of more people living with disabilities for extended periods.
So, while headlines might celebrate longer life spans, staying healthy throughout those extra years could become a major concern in the future. The study said: “Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from Communicable, Maternal, Neonatal, and Nutritional Diseases (CMNNs) to Non-communicable Diseases (NCDs).
“That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on (CMNN) disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and Disability-adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) due to all causes combined will generally increase.
“By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.”
