The Nigerian-British Chamber of Commerce (NBCC) has said that projections for Nigeria’s output growth are estimated to be between 2.6 per cent to 3.1 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while the global environment is expected to remain fragile over the next 12 months.
It said while the global environment remains fragile due to persistent and escalating global geopolitical tensions, the domestic economy is unstable and dealing with the inevitable cost of long delayed reforms.
NBCC, in its 2024 Economic Outlook, said the domestic environment is presently defined by instability, stagflation, forex market illiquidity, oil production below OPEC quota and inflation significantly above yields, warning about the tough times ahead and the long road to recovery.
In his keynote presentation, former Economic Adviser to former President Muhammadu Buhari, Dr Doyin Salami, said despite reduced inflation, interest rates could still rise as prices remain above pre-pandemic and target levels in many countries.
He said the beginning of 2024 was defined by slow output growth, high inflation despite tight monetary policy and worsening geopolitical tensions.
He stated that with the year’s Nigerian economic outlook, the 3.1 per cent growth projection would be slightly faster than in 2023, cost increase will moderate as monetary policy stabilises exchange rate and inflation; monetary policy would be tighter as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) focuses on inflation and currency stability.
On key domestic risks, the economist stated that for the real sector, there would be weaker economic growth and an increase in the current double-digit inflation rate.
In a goodwill message, Governor of the CBN, Olayemi Cardoso, said Nigeria’s economic outlook for the year is faced with concurrent, upside and downside factors.
He said the external factors range from commodity price volatility and global economic conditions to rising geopolitical tensions, while the domestic risks include exchange rate volatility, fiscal challenges and political issues.
Cardoso, represented by a top official of the CBN, Ladi Keffi, said although the apex bank has implemented several policies and reforms to enhance the country’s short to medium-term economic prospects, however, said a successful and well-coordinated execution of the various reforms was mandatory.
Earlier, President and Chairman of Council, NBCC, Ray Atelly, said the chamber hosts the event yearly to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the opportunities, challenges and threats that businesses should expect to contend with during the year, both in the country and globally.
