‘ERGP will help Nigeria achieve sustainable growth’
Statistician General of the National Bureau of Statistic (NBS), Yemi Kale, has urged Nigerians to be optimistic as the economy continues to show signs of positive recovery.
Although he admitted that the economy is currently biting hard on Nigerians, he eaised hopes that all is not lost if the government would keep to the principles of its Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP).
The Statistician General opined that although Nigeria is technically out of recession, however, it is not yet on the path of economic recovery. Therefore, the oil sector and its dysfunctional impact on the economy is a reoccurring decimal in the nation’s recession trajectory.Kale revealed this at the Institute of Directors (IoD) Nigeria October Members’ Evening in Lagos, a forum that enables members interact, network and share experiences offering directions for policy makers in the country.
He said more effort is required to diversify the economy in line with the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) 2017 – 2020.In his presentation, “Beyond Recession: Outlook for the Nigerian Economy,” Kale said there is a need for government to remain focused and continue with the ERGP reforms, which need to be sustained and scaled up.
According to him, the immediate causes of Nigeria’s recession are traceable to fall in oil price in mid-2014, and the low fiscal buffers that forced a depletion of foreign reserves.
“Year-to-date (YTD) the Nigerian economy is still growing at a negative rate of -0.18 per cent despite being out of recession, owing to the dysfunctional economic structure of the country,” he said.
He said the economy witnessed a strong growth in gross fixed capital formation component at 7.64 per cent in Q3, year on year, sustaining trend since Q4 2015, while investment share of GDP stood at 14.09 per cent in Q3 2016.However, the Share of Investment to gross domestic product (GDP) year to date of 15.8 per cent has also been higher than Q1-Q3 2015 put at 15.1 per cent.
Kale said the economy is hinged on three pillars, which he classified into the oil sector contributing 8 per cent, the second is the import/consumption driven non-oil sector contributing 52 per cent, while the third pillar, the investment driven non-oil sector contributes 40 per cent to the GDP.
However, the hugely consumption nature of the economy makes it extremely vulnerable, based on its exposure to external factors beyond the control of those who manage the economy.
Earlier, President/Chairman of Governing Council, IoD Nigeria, Ahmed Rufai Mohammed, in his welcome address said the Institute is constantly in search of knowledge to grow the economy, and build capacity of its members.
According to him, the IoD is concerned about the tough economic environment and sufferings in the country.“There is therefore a reason for directors to meet, share experiences, brainstorm on the challenges and come up with recommendations,” Ahmed stated.
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